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On the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, a prediction asking whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025 has attracted over $763,000 in trading volume, with participants currently pricing in just a 2% probability of the Second Coming before the year ends.
The Holy Bet
The prediction, titled “Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?”, will resolve to “Yes” only if the Second Coming occurs by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025.
- According to Polymarket, resolution will be based on “a consensus of credible sources,” though what qualifies as “credible” remains undefined. If not, the market resolves to “No.”
- The odds have steadily declined since peaking at around 3.3% in May. As of mid-July, they stand at 2%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week.
The Reactions
The market has drawn both skeptical bettors and believers.
- One user wrote, “I bought $1 of Yes for the culture. Just in case he comes back, I can say I believed.”
- Another noted, “If Christ returns, the debt you take for this bet doesn’t matter. A double whammy.”
- Some posters speculated that global instability may be fueling renewed religious sentiment. “Given the convergence of global crises… many believers see 2025 as a symbolic turning point,” one comment read.
- Others were quick to mock the idea. “If you vote yes, what is that money gonna do for you in the end times?” a user asked.
This is not the first unconventional market to gain traction on Polymarket. Parallel listings speculate on topics such as alien disclosure (6% chance of U.S. confirmation in 2025) and political outcomes like Donald Trump resigning (4%).
Testing Boundaries
Despite its irreverence, the “Jesus market” highlights how blockchain-based prediction markets are testing the boundaries of what people are willing to speculate. It combined faith, finance, and internet culture in a single tradeable instrument.
Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon blockchain, allows users to place bets using USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
- The platform has faced regulatory scrutiny in the past; in 2022, its parent company settled charges with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered binary options contracts.
- The regulators decided to end that investigation last week.
Wagering on divine prophecy will always be up for debate, but the market is clear that those who voted “Yes” will likely walk away empty-handed by the end of 2025,
So for now, at least in the eyes of the market, the Second coming of Christ remains a long shot.
This article is published on BitPinas: Will Jesus Christ Return in 2025? Polymarket Bettors Say There’s Only a 2% Chance
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