Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. BitPinas has no commercial relationship with any mentioned entity unless otherwise stated.
📬 Get the biggest crypto stories in the Philippines and Southeast Asia every week — subscribe to the BitPinas Newsletter.
Financial experts and industry analysts are now eyeing Venezuela’s possible cryptocurrency holdings after the U.S. campaign to remove and seize President Nicolás Maduro. Rumors of a large, unofficial Bitcoin “shadow reserve” have emerged, which has raised questions about what assets exist, how big they might be, and whether the U.S. government could move to secure or intervene with them.
The “Shadow Reserve” Estimates
Estimates regarding the size of Venezuela’s Bitcoin holdings vary significantly.
According to a report by digital publication Project Brazen (via CNBC), the nation could hold up to $60 billion in Bitcoin, a figure derived from unverified sources and mathematical calculations based on the country’s past gold sales. If accurate, this would equate to approximately 600,000 BTC. This will place the regime among the largest Bitcoin holders globally.
However, verifiable on-chain data paints a more conservative picture. Data provider Bitcointreasuries.net currently lists Venezuela’s confirmed holdings at just 240 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $22 million.
Skepticism from Blockchain Analysts
Major blockchain analysis firms have expressed caution regarding the higher estimates. Frank Weert, co-founder of Whale Alert, noted that if Venezuela possessed 600,000 BTC, it would be “nearly impossible” to completely evade tracking by analysis firms. Weert emphasized that such claims require “very strong evidence”.
Andrew Fierman, head of national security intelligence at Chainalysis, told CNBC that while on-chain analysis can track transaction histories, it cannot always definitively identify wallet owners. He acknowledged that Venezuela likely amassed crypto assets to navigate sanctions but declined to estimate the total value.
Potential US Seizure and Strategic Reserve
Market observers are currently discussing the implications of these assets coming under new control. Sebastian Pedro Bea, president of ReserveOne, suggested that the United States could seize Venezuela’s Bitcoin as part of broader enforcement actions against the former regime.
“Nothing is stopping the U.S. from doing more enforcement actions that go after bad actors [in Venezuela] who could happen to have a lot of bitcoin,” Bea stated. “And when they do that, that bitcoin can go right to Treasury”.
This scenario has fueled speculation regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Some proponents suggest that confiscating assets from the Maduro regime could allow the U.S. to accumulate Bitcoin at “no cost to taxpayers,” a core component of the administration’s proposed crypto policy.
Market Implications
The disposition of these assets could impact global markets. Experts noted two primary scenarios:
- Liquidation: If the former regime attempts to sell off assets to secure funds, it could create near-term sell pressure.
- Seizure: If the U.S. government confiscates the assets, they might be held rather than sold. Chris Perkins, managing partner at CoinFund, noted that if the administration acquires significant Bitcoin, they are unlikely to “dump it into the market,” a scenario he described as ultimately bullish for the asset class.
A History of Crypto Adoption
Venezuela has a documented history of utilizing digital assets to bypass global financial restrictions. The country previously issued the “Petro,” a state-backed cryptocurrency, and has frequently used crypto for cross-border trade and energy payments. (Read more: Petro’s Interesting and Confusing Launch)
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the exact figures, Gui Gomes, CEO of OranjeBTC, stated it is “very fair to assume Venezuela had meaningful exposure to bitcoin,” given their exclusion from the traditional global financial system.
This article is published on BitPinas: Analysts Speculate on US Seizure of Venezuela’s Bitcoin Reserves Following Regime Change
What else is happening in Crypto Philippines and beyond?
